A recent study from Moody's and the Wall Street Journal looked at regions with at least 1 million in population and found that, overwhelmingly, the best job markets were found in the South, with 9 out of the top 10 coming from cities in Tennessee, Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia.
The study ranked the strongest labor markets based on five factors: unemployment rate, labor-force participation, changes to employment levels, the size of the labor force and wages in 2022.
The job data follows the demographic shifts we've seen over the past several years with more people leaving high cost metros for more affordable areas in warmer climates. This has results in many young, educated people helping bolster the workforce and making the regions attractive to families as well. Outside of the financial considerations, these markets offer a variety of amenities around outdoor activities, lively music scenes, nightlight, food and strong artistic communities that adds to the attraction.
Major employers have followed the trend. Many of the traditional financial powers in New York City have been migrating to Florida, andElon Musk continues to expand around the Austin area as part of his plan to make his own Texan Utopia.
Miami & its mayor, Francis X. Suarez has been particularly aggressive in targeting companies and individuals from the Northeast (especially New York), and they've had a lot of success. They've even convinced famed Citadel founder Ken Griffin to pledge billions by moving his firm to Miami to create "Wall Street South". While the growth in Miami has been incredible, many expect to see the area become a global force over the next decade.
Real estate trends have followed the migration south. There is a near record amount of construction on new multifamily units coming to the market over the next 12-18 months, with many of those popping up in growth cities like Dallas and Atlanta. Despite that, many feel that population growth will continue and the new demand won't keep up with supply for long. (That's one reason we continue to keep our deal flow active, actively searching the Sun Belt for quality assets for our new Multifamily Fund.)
The increased demand has let to an increased cost of living, of course. Rents rose quickly over the pandemic, at levels we're not likely to see again. However, the relative cost of living in, say, Jacksonville vs New York City makes a move incredibly attractive. And, despite the negative headlines, no economic downturn lasts forever, and the companies investing in these markets will will create fierce competition for qualified workers in tech, healthcare, education and other verticals, creating a rising wage base when they begin to grow again or potentially shift their workforce to less expensive, employer friendly regions.
Finally, as business and recreational travel have picked up, destination markets have also moved up in the rankings. New Orleans, Las Vegas, Orlando and other major tourism meccas have benefitted tremendously from the pent up demand in travel. In fact, the rebound in hiring across leisure and hospitality has been a major reason for propping up a resilient labor market that has predominantly resisted rising rates and high inflation.
We expect these southern Southern cities will help lead the way out of the current downturn and potential recession, making many of them the best markets for multifamily investing now. Markets like Atlanta just have too much momentum and the market fundamentals are too strong to ignore. The ingredients to attracting and retaining workers are in place, and the regions are investing in their infrastructure to support growth well into the future.
Top Job Markets in the U.S.
1. Nashville, TN
2. Austin, TX
3. Jacksonville, FL
4. Dallas, TX
5. Raleigh, NC
6. Atlanta, GA
7. Orlando, FL
8. Charlotte, NC
9. Salt Lake City, UT
10. Miami, FL
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About Ellie Perlman
Ellie Perlman is the founder and CEO of Blue Lake Capital, a woman owned multifamily real estate investment firm focused on partnering with family offices and accredited investors to build and preserve generational wealth. Since its founding in 2017, Blue Lake has successfully acquired and operated multifamily assets across high-growth U.S. markets, completing $1B+ in transactions.
At Blue Lake Capital, Ellie and her team work exclusively with family offices and accredited investors, offering carefully curated investment opportunities that emphasize long-term wealth creation, stability, and risk-adjusted returns. A defining aspect of Blue Lake’s investment strategy is its integration of advanced AI-driven analytics and data science into the entire lifecycle of acquisitions and asset management. By leveraging cutting-edge technology, the firm executes data-driven forecasting on market trends, asset performance, and tenant behavior, ensuring strategic decision-making and optimized returns.
In addition to leading Blue Lake Capital, Ellie is the original founder and host of "REady2Scale - Real Estate Investing" podcast, which provides insights into multifamily real estate, alternative investments, and finance.
Ellie began her career as a commercial real estate attorney, structuring and negotiating complex transactions for one of Israel’s leading development firms. She later transitioned into property management, overseeing over $100M in assets for Israel’s largest energy company.
Ellie holds a Master’s in Law from Bar-Ilan University in Israel and an MBA from MIT Sloan School of Management.
You can learn more about Blue Lake Capital and Ellie Perlman at www.bluelake-capital.com.
*The content provided on this website, including all downloadable resources, is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Furthermore, this material does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
