_edited.jpg){kind=small}
As a passive real estate investor, understanding key metrics like capitalization rates, or cap rates, is important for evaluating potential returns and risks. Cap rates serve as a shorthand to assess the value of real estate investments, but they also hold much more insight about market conditions, investor sentiment, and the economic environment.
This week we’re using insights from an impressive recent Morgan Tsui research paper, that will help us unpack the fundamentals of cap rates and what they mean for your investments.
What Are Cap Rates?
At its core, a cap rate is a measure of an investment property’s potential return. It's calculated by dividing the property’s net operating income (NOI) by its purchase price. For instance, if a property generates $5 million in annual NOI and costs $100 million, the cap rate would be 5%:
Cap Rate = NOI / Purchase Price
Cap rates reflect both the return you can expect from a property and the perceived risk of the investment. Higher cap rates often indicate higher potential returns but come with greater risks, while lower cap rates suggest safer investments with lower returns.
How Cap Rates Vary Across Asset Classes
The Tsui-Morgan research paper highlights several findings about cap rates across different real estate asset classes, including multifamily, industrial, retail, and office properties. Here’s how multifamily properties stand out:
Consistency and Resilience: Multifamily cap rates are the most consistent among asset classes, showing less volatility compared to office or retail properties. This makes multifamily real estate an attractive option for passive investors seeking steady, predictable returns.
Macroeconomic Factors: Multifamily cap rates are influenced by broader economic indicators like the 10-year Treasury yield, past cap rates, and expected revenue growth. According to the research:
A 1% increase in the 10-year Treasury yield increases cap rates by approximately 32 basis points.
A 1% increase in expected revenue growth decreases cap rates by 7.7 basis points.
Historical Stability: Multifamily properties have had the lowest average cap rate spread over the 10-year Treasury, just over 250 basis points. This demonstrates strong investor confidence in the stability of the asset class.
Why Do Cap Rates Matter for Investors?
Cap rates influence how properties are valued and priced. They also play a critical role in determining how much income your investment generates relative to its purchase price. Here’s why you should pay close attention to cap rates:
Property Valuation: When cap rates rise, property values fall, assuming the NOI stays constant. Conversely, falling cap rates increase property values. For passive investors, understanding cap rate trends can help you time your investments and maximize returns.
Risk Assessment: Cap rates reflect the risk profile of a property. Multifamily properties tend to have lower cap rates compared to industrial or retail properties, indicating lower risk and more stable returns.
Market Insights: Cap rate trends can provide insights into the broader economy. For instance, during periods of high inflation or rising interest rates, cap rates often increase as the cost of borrowing rises.
Key Takeaways for Multifamily Investors
Based on the research findings, here’s how you can use cap rates to evaluate your multifamily investments:
Benchmark Against Market Trends: Compare the cap rate of your investment to the market average for similar properties. Multifamily properties typically have a cap rate spread of around 250 basis points over the 10-year Treasury yield, offering a reliable benchmark.
Consider Economic Conditions: Monitor economic indicators like the Treasury yield and projected rent growth. These factors heavily influence cap rates and, by extension, property valuations.
Focus on Stability: Multifamily investments offer consistency and resilience, making them a strong choice for passive investors. Their lower volatility compared to other asset classes makes them particularly attractive during uncertain economic times.
Interesting Findings from the Research
The Morgan Tsui paper uncovered some fascinating trends in cap rates across the real estate sector:
Revenue Growth Matters: Expected revenue growth had the largest impact on retail and office cap rates but was less significant for multifamily properties.
Treasury Yields as a Driver: The 10-year Treasury yield was a key determinant for cap rates in all asset classes, with the greatest impact on office properties.
Historical Trends: Multifamily cap rates showed remarkable resilience even during economic downturns, maintaining a narrower spread compared to other asset classes.
Final Thoughts
For passive investors in multifamily real estate, cap rates are an important tool for evaluating investments. By understanding how cap rates are influenced by economic conditions and market trends, you can make more informed decisions and achieve better returns.
Multifamily properties stand out for their stability and resilience, offering consistent returns in a variety of economic climates. As you evaluate potential deals, use cap rates not just as a number, but as a lens through which to understand the value and risk of your investment.
If you’re considering your next multifamily investment, now is the time to leverage these insights and partner with experienced sponsors who can help you navigate the nuances of cap rate trends.
P.S. If one of your priorities, like mine, is building and preserving your wealth through multifamily real estate investments, click here to download my new eBook: The Ultimate Guide to Creating & Preserving Your Wealth.
---
Invest With Blue Lake Capital
If you are an accredited investor interested in learning more about passively investing in multifamily properties, click here to complete our investor form and schedule a call with our Investor Relations team.
About Ellie Perlman
Ellie Perlman is the founder of Blue Lake Capital, a commercial real estate investment firm specializing in multifamily investing throughout the United States. At Blue Lake Capital, Ellie partners with both institutional and individual investors to grow their wealth by achieving double-digit returns by investing alongside her in exclusive multifamily deals they usually don't have access to.
A defining factor of Blue Lake Capital’s strategy is founded in utilizing machine learning/artificial intelligence throughout the course of all acquisitions and asset management. This advanced technology enables the company to produce accurate and data-driven forecasting for all assets on a market, property, and even tenant basis. In doing so, Blue Lake is able to lead commercial investments with the full capabilities of today’s technology.
Ellie is the founding host of REady2Scale, a podcast that highlights the assets, processes, and strategies for the multiple approaches to successful real estate investing.
She started her career as a commercial real estate lawyer, leading real estate transactions for one of Israel’s leading development companies. Later, as a property manager for Israel’s largest energy company, she oversaw properties worth over $100MM. Additionally, Ellie is an experienced entrepreneur who helped build and scale companies by improving their business operations.
Ellie holds a Masters in Law from Bar-Ilan University in Israel and an MBA from MIT Sloan School of Management.
You can read more about Blue Lake Capital and Ellie Perlman at www.bluelake-capital.com.
*The content provided on this website, including all downloadable resources, is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Furthermore, this material does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.