AI, Jobs, and the Great Migration 2.0?

AI Is Not Just Automating Jobs. It’s Moving Markets.

According to Goldman Sachs, AI could displace 6 to 7% of the U.S. workforce by 2030. Meanwhile, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has warned that up to 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs could vanish within five years. These claims are further supported by a recent report by Brookings showing the industries most likely to be impacted:

Source: Brookings Metro, "The Geography of Generative AI’s Workforce Impacts," 2023. Data from Lightcast and OpenAI. View the full report here.

While many of these workers will reskill or shift industries, others will be pushed to relocate to more affordable cities with better job prospects. This is not just a labor story; it’s a migration story. 

At the same time, the World Economic Forum projects a net increase of over 2 million jobs globally, driven by growth in sectors like healthcare, AI safety, and data engineering. Those new roles will cluster in specific regions, potentially creating new boomtowns, and new multifamily opportunities along with it. 

Markets Most Likely to See Outmigration

Some cities will feel AI’s impact more acutely than others. Areas with high concentrations of automatable jobs and low economic diversification may experience both job loss and outbound migration.

Here are U.S. markets at heightened risk: 

• San Jose, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, CA
  The most highly exposed metro in the U.S. to AI-related job disruption, with a workforce dominated by technical and engineering roles. As automation reshapes the tech sector, mid-tier workers may face displacement without nearby alternatives. Paired with sky-high living costs, this could create significant outbound migration pressure.
  
  
• San Francisco Bay Area
  High cost of living and a workforce dense in AI-replaceable tech roles could create a double bind for residents. While the region benefits from innovation and capital access, widespread adoption of generative AI may begin displacing mid-level software, design, and support roles that once fueled the Bay Area’s rental economy.
  
  
• Chicago, IL
  A significant share of its job base is tied to administrative, clerical, and back-office operations. These sectors rank among the most vulnerable to AI-driven automation. With slower job growth in high-resilience industries and limited AI-related reinvestment, the region may see younger or mid-career renters relocate to more future-proof metros.
  
  
• Washington, D.C.
  A large portion of contractor, defense, and policy-adjacent work in this region may face digital streamlining. While high-level roles will likely persist, much of the supporting infrastructure such as research assistants, legal analysts, and administrative staff could be thinned by AI adoption. This may reduce renter demand in workforce and mid-tier housing segments.
  
  
• New York City, NY
  A dense concentration of financial services, legal support, and back-office administrative roles makes this market highly exposed to AI disruption. Combined with high living costs, this could put pressure on middle-tier renters and increase outbound migration toward lower-cost metros. Although New York will always have magnetism, the depth of disruption may shift demand within certain housing segments. 

Source: Brookings Metro, 2025. View original analysis.

A Forecast of Where Renters May Go Next

We know that real estate follows jobs, and jobs follow economic resilience. But when technology changes the rules of the labor market, as AI is doing now, renters often move first. They do not wait for policies or long-term trends. They respond to affordability, opportunity, and quality of life.

While U-Haul and United Van Lines offer helpful real-time snapshots of where people are moving, they are only part of the story. For a forward-looking forecast, we need to start with the fundamentals.

According to Brookings Metro, the cities with the highest exposure to AI-driven job displacement are those with dense concentrations of white-collar roles in administration, finance, legal services, and software engineering. These roles are being rapidly reshaped by generative AI. If those jobs are consolidated or eliminated, the people in them will either need to retrain or relocate.

At the same time, economic resilience data from the Economic Innovation Group and regional labor studies point to metros that are better positioned to absorb displaced workers. These cities tend to have growing job markets, stronger public university systems, lower costs of living, and more diversified economies.

Here are the cities we believe are most likely to see increased inbound migration over the next three to five years: 

• Raleigh-Durham, NC
  A thriving innovation corridor with leading universities, affordable housing, and strong job creation in both tech and healthcare. Raleigh ranks high in economic resilience and continues to show strong in-migration momentum.
• Austin, TX
  While it has cooled since its pandemic-era boom, Austin still offers relatively affordable living compared to coastal tech hubs. The city’s mix of startups, research institutions, and AI-adjacent industries positions it well for continued growth.
• Salt Lake City, UT
  Known for its high quality of life and expanding tech sector, Salt Lake is also one of the more affordable Western metros. It is attracting both companies and workers looking for a fresh start outside of high-cost markets.
• Nashville, TN
  A healthcare and logistics hub with rising in-migration and strong multifamily demand. Nashville is benefiting from both business relocation and renter movement out of more saturated urban centers.
• Dallas, TX
  As one of the fastest-growing major metros in the country, Dallas continues to attract both companies and workers. Its diverse economy, relative affordability, and steady job growth across sectors like finance, tech, and logistics make it a key market to watch. 

These cities may not be immune to disruption, but they are better equipped to adapt, retrain, and attract new industries. For investors, this is where fundamentals intersect with foresight.

At Blue Lake Capital, we are using data from credible sources, not just headlines, to inform our long-term strategy. By staying ahead of migration trends and market signals, we aim to place capital where the next wave of rental demand will emerge.

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About Ellie Perlman