5 Sun Belt Markets Forecast to Lead in Rent Growth Recovery by 2026

Ellie Perlman By Ellie Perlman
3 min read
May 26, 2025

Topics:

multifamily

Dallas

Finance

Passive Investing

Passive Income

Assets

And why now may be the inflection point for long-term investors…

If you’ve been watching the multifamily space closely, you know the Sun Belt has taken a hit in recent quarters. Rent growth slowed. New supply surged. Investors hesitated.


But here’s what’s not being talked about enough: much of that pain may already be priced in, and the next chapter is starting to take shape. New supply is peaking. Deliveries are expected to taper. And according to Yardi Matrix’s April 2025 report, several Sun Belt metros are poised to reemerge as leaders in rent growth by 2026.


Here are five markets forecasted to rebound, and why long-term passive investors should take notice.

1. Orlando, FL

Forecast Rent Growth (2025–2026): 4.2%
Completions as % of Stock: 7.3%
Job Growth: 2.4%

Orlando is absorbing one of the largest new delivery volumes in the country, yet demand remains healthy. With strong in-migration and a dynamic service and tourism economy, the market is positioned to see rents rise sharply once new supply is leased up, especially in late 2025 and into 2026.

2. Nashville, TN

 

Forecast Rent Growth (2025–2026): 3.8%
Completions as % of Stock: 6.3%
Job Growth: 2.5%

Nashville continues to benefit from diversified job growth, including healthcare, tech, and education, plus strong population inflows. Yardi forecasts rent growth acceleration as construction activity slows and the city's cultural and economic appeal keeps attracting talent.

3. Charlotte, NC

 

Forecast Rent Growth (2025–2026): 3.6%
Completions as % of Stock: 5.3%
Job Growth: 2.2%

Charlotte has seen a wave of new product hit the market, but it’s been met with equally strong absorption. As the delivery pipeline shrinks heading into 2026, the city’s balance of affordability and employment growth positions it for above-average rent recovery.

4. Phoenix, AZ

 

Forecast Rent Growth (2025–2026): 3.5%
Completions as % of Stock: 7.9%
Job Growth: 2.3%

Phoenix was one of the first Sun Belt cities to overheat, and one of the first to correct. With deliveries expected to drop sharply after this year, stabilized assets could benefit from reduced competition and a return to stronger rent growth in mid-to-late 2026.

5. Dallas–Fort Worth, TX

 

Forecast Rent Growth (2025–2026): 3.3%
Completions as % of Stock: 5.8%
Job Growth: 3.0%
DFW remains a magnet for corporate relocations and talent migration, with some even considering it the next NYC. Even amid a heavy supply cycle, occupancy has held relatively firm. As construction starts decline and demand remains high, this market is expected to return to even stronger rent growth in 2026. 
Forecasted Rent Growth, Supply Pressure, Job Growth (Sun Belt Markets)

Final Thoughts

 

In 2023 and 2024, the Sun Belt saw cap rates expand and NOI growth soften, creating challenges. But for those who take the long view, these next 12–18 months represent optimism for current investments, as well as a strategic buying window. With deliveries tapering and demand still strong, assets acquired today could benefit from improving fundamentals and NOI-driven appreciation beginning in 2026.

For passive investors, the lesson is simple: the Sun Belt hasn’t lost its growth story, it’s just in a new chapter. And the data suggests it could be a very exciting one.

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About Ellie Perlman
Ellie Perlman is the founder and CEO of Blue Lake Capital, a woman owned multifamily real estate investment firm focused on partnering with family offices and accredited investors to build and preserve generational wealth. Since its founding in 2017, Blue Lake has successfully acquired and operated multifamily assets across high-growth U.S. markets, completing $1B+ in transactions.

At Blue Lake Capital, Ellie and her team work exclusively with family offices and accredited investors, offering carefully curated investment opportunities that emphasize long-term wealth creation, stability, and risk-adjusted returns. A defining aspect of Blue Lake’s investment strategy is its integration of advanced AI-driven analytics and data science into the entire lifecycle of acquisitions and asset management. By leveraging cutting-edge technology, the firm executes data-driven forecasting on market trends, asset performance, and tenant behavior, ensuring strategic decision-making and optimized returns.

In addition to leading Blue Lake Capital, Ellie is the original founder and host of "REady2Scale - Real Estate Investing" podcast, which provides insights into multifamily real estate, alternative investments, and finance.

Ellie began her career as a commercial real estate attorney, structuring and negotiating complex transactions for one of Israel’s leading development firms. She later transitioned into property management, overseeing over $100M in assets for Israel’s largest energy company.

Ellie holds a Master’s in Law from Bar-Ilan University in Israel and an MBA from MIT Sloan School of Management.

You can learn more about Blue Lake Capital and Ellie Perlman at www.bluelake-capital.com.  *The content provided on this website, including all downloadable resources, is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Furthermore, this material does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.  
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