Is the Housing Market Really Recovering?

Is the Housing Market Really Healing or Just Delayed?
What does today’s housing data tell us about tomorrow’s economy? On this episode of REady2Scale, Jeannette Friedrich sits down with Lance Lambert, CEO of Resi Club and former real estate editor at Fortune Magazine, to unpack the real story behind housing inventory levels, affordability pressures, and regional price corrections. From Sunbelt softness to generational shifts in homeownership, Lance offers a grounded, data-informed view of where we stand and where we may be headed.
Key Takeaways:
- Inventory is building, but not fully recovered: Active listings have passed one million for the first time since 2019, though total inventory is still below pre-pandemic norms. The increase is driven more by slower sales than a surge in new supply.
- Affordability remains a constraint: Home prices grew faster than incomes during the pandemic boom. With mortgage rates still elevated, many homeowners are hesitant or unable to move.
- Underwater mortgages are highly concentrated: While only about 1% of U.S. mortgages are underwater nationally, pockets in the Sunbelt, like Cape Coral and Austin, show higher risk. These cases are mostly limited to 2022 buyers.
- Regional bifurcation is widening: Sunbelt markets and parts of the West are softening, while many Midwest and Northeast markets are holding firmer due to tighter supply.
- The “locked-in” effect is real: Homeowners with low mortgage rates are staying put, reducing turnover. The current level of home sales per capita is at a 40-year low.
- Generational timing is shifting: The average age of first-time homebuyers is now 38, up from 33 just five years ago, driven by both affordability and lifestyle delays.
- Builders are feeling the pressure: New construction inventory is at a decade high, and developers are relying more on incentives and price cuts to move product.
- The housing shortage debate is nuanced: Estimates of how short the market is vary significantly. Some regions have a true supply gap, while others show little evidence of shortage when adjusted for population and household formation.
- What could shift the market: Income growth, rate adjustments, and time-driven lifestyle changes may gradually unlock inventory and restore balance.
This episode is a detailed, research-backed conversation for anyone seeking clarity on how structural shifts and economic forces are shaping the future of U.S. housing.
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Credits
Producer: Blue Lake Capital
Strategist: Syed Mahmood
Editor: Emma Walker
Opening music: Pomplamoose
*𝘉𝘭𝘶𝘦 𝘓𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘊𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘳 𝘢 𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺. 𝘗𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘊𝘗𝘈, 𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘦𝘺, 𝘢𝘯𝘥/𝘰𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘶𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘣𝘺 𝘺𝘰𝘶.
Episode Transcript:
There is nothing quite more powerful than paying attention to the US housing market. If you really wanna pick up on clues about the economy and where we're headed today, we have an expert guest to do just that. Let's get ready to scale.
Hey guys. My name is Jeannette Friedrich. I'm the Director of Investor Relations at Blue Lake Capital, where we specialize in multifamily investments across the United States. But today we've got a different matter at hand. We're gonna be speaking with Lance Lambert. Lance is the CEO and editor in chief of Resi Club, an independent news and research firm that covers the US housing market.
Prior to that, he was a real estate editor for Fortune Magazine and before that, a data journalist@realtor.com and at Bloomberg, he has a bachelor's in Arts in Economics and Journalism from the University of Cincinnati, and that is where he's joining us from. Today is Cincinnati, Ohio. So Lance, thank you for coming on the show.
Yeah, thank you for having me. Housing. There's always so much going on in the housing market, especially right now. Yeah, there is, there definitely is. I was just reading an article this morning that came out in the LA Times. It was talking about the high number of cancellations essentially from buyers that have been looking at, perspective houses on the market and then are getting cold feet and canceling the deals.
And along those lines I wanted to talk about active listings. So they've actually topped over a million for the first time since 2019, which seems to be a very positive sign. But the overall inventory is still below pre pandemic levels. So in your opinion, is this basically the start of a sustained easing in the supply crunch, or is this just a seasonal uptick?
And which economic currents do you think are gonna really impact or influence whether these listings continue to climb or decline? Yeah, so I think it's good to take a step back and zoom out. And so if you go all the way back to March, 2020, right? Go back to the start of the pandemic.
The pandemic occurs and then not long afterwards, there is a pretty big surge up in housing demand. The ultra low rates, makes every, all these properties cash flow. So many investors piling in some people deciding this was a great time to buy second homes, right? You had the Airbnb market starting to rip, right?
You had all the stimulus money that came in. You also had what I would call work from home arbitrage. Where people could go and take their higher income jobs in New York City, Los Angeles, Seattle, and go it by in Boise, Tampa, Austin. And then even the people who stayed in Los Angeles, San Francisco, or New York City, there was also a, another work from Home Effect, which was a demand for more space.
So people who were used to seeing their roommates. Two hours a day, we're seeing them 15 hours a day during the pandemic, right? And they're like, you know what? I hate your guts. And so there was a million more household formations than were otherwise expected. And some people wanted more space 'cause they wanted an office at home, right?
And so even in the places where people left. There was still more demand for housing. And so the truth with housing is that demand for housing is way more elastic. And elastic is an economics word for going up or down. And so housing demand can go up and it can go down much faster than the actual supply, the actual stock of homes.
And so during the pandemic housing. Boom. Demand ripped. It just took off historically. And the Federal Reserve estimates that during that two year period of the pandemic housing boom. New home construction would've need housing starts, would've needed to increase 300% to absorb the increase in housing demand.
That's not possible, right? You can't even have a 50 75% increase in housing starts. Let alone a 300%. So we would've needed to go from 1.4 million homes being constructed to 2.8, just to get to a hundred percent increase, then to 4 million, then to almost 6 million to get the amount of supply to absorb that increase in housing demand.
So it didn't happen, right? You couldn't absorb it like that. And so what happens when you have that much housing demand and there's not enough supply to absorb it? Prices overheat, right? So the people who are willing to pay the most get to transact. It's just simple economics, right? And so prices, national home prices for single family during the pandemic housing boom, between March, 2020.
By June, 2022 we're up 45, 50% depending on the end toe you look at. Comes, did not keep up with that. And then mortgage rates. Because the inflationary shock was followed by an interest rate shock went up from 3% average 30 year fixed mortgage rate to four, to five, to six to seven. And then at that point, wow, this affordability squeeze is real.
You the the reality of that home price growth. Overheating a prices was finally felt. And so incomes to match that, they would've needed to increase 80%. That didn't happen. Nothing close to that. And so the environment that we've been in is during that pandemic housing boom, that overheating it absorbed the active inventory for sale the days that a home was on the market before pending.
Dramatically collapsed right in months of supply, the amount of months that it would take to absorb all of the supply for sale instead of being measured in months. Some of these markets they were talking about in weeks 'cause there was little active inventory for sale and so the pandemic housing boom fizzles out once mortgage rates shoot up.
And for a moment it destabilized the market and it created a bit of a correction for prices in the second half of 2022, as that reality was felt. But by the end of 22 into 23, a number of these markets stabilized, right? They, because they still had lower levels of active inventory. And so once the seasonal upswing came into 2023, they tightened up.
But it was also a bit of a mirage because underneath it there is still this very strained affordability, right? Prices just ran up too far beyond incomes in a number of these markets. And so over time as that, we've stayed in this suppressed demand environment for longer. The amount of active homes for sale has slowly ticked up, and it's not ticking up because there's a lot of homes coming on the market for sale.
It's just that the market, the homes coming on the market for sale, and many of these markets are taking longer to sell. And so the active inventory is building and the months of supply is rising, and active inventory for sale is up around 34% year over year. It's still 12% below pre pandemic levels, but I estimate in the next four months we're gonna be above pre pandemic active inventory levels on a nationally aggregated basis using the realtor.com series.
And so that is actually still my call that I made. Back in October, 2023 when I founded Resi Club, and it's pretty similar to my call that I had in 22 when I was still at Fortune about when we would make it to pre pandemic levels. And so as we moved up to pre pandemic active inventory levels, the markets that have gotten there and then exceeded pre pandemic levels, those have been the ones that have seen the softest and weakest home price growth.
And so you have markets like Austin, Texas that got above pre pandemic levels by into 22 into 23. They've given up now around 23% on home prices there in that market. Some of these markets in southwest Florida have now given up around 10 to 15%. For home prices. And then you have some other markets that have gotten back to pre pandemic levels or a bit above it.
And instead of, more sizable give up in prices, they've gone flat. Or just a little bit of give up. And then the markets that have still stayed tighter. Some of these areas in the northeast, some of these areas in the Midwest, those have been the places that were more resilient for home price growth in 23.
24. But even now, those places have started to decelerate for the rate of appreciation and are seeing much milder levels of appreciation. But I do think that there's still a great deal of bifurcation in the market. I. And the weak, the greatest softness and weakness is found more so in the sunbelt areas.
Some of the areas of Florida, some of the areas of Texas, Louisiana, Arizona, pockets of Colorado, and then the west has softened as well lately. And then still the greatest level of relative tightness and some of these secondary and third markets and deeper excerpts in the Northeast and Midwest.
Very interesting, and I'm gonna dig into that a little bit further because nationally only about 1% of mortgages are technically sitting under water, except that it's very concentrated in the Sunbelt markets where it's already exceeding 4%. So what combination of macro factors could turn kind of these isolated pockets of negative equity into more of a broader credit concern?
And how do you think that compares to the conditions of oh eight? Yeah, so right now 1% of residential mortgages homeowner mortgages are underwater, right? So negative equity. Back in September, 2009, after we were through the biggest part of the housing bust, housing crash, you had 23% of homeowners that were underwater.
Wow. 1% versus 23. Pretty big difference. And some markets now are getting up to four or five, and then even 8% in Cape Coral. But even that still is relative much lower than, let's say, the. 40% of Florida mortgages that were underwater in 2009. The 50% of Arizona mortgages that were underwater by September, 2009 and the 63% of Nevada mortgages that were underwater by September, 2009.
So relative, much lower. And so I think people were probably like, given that some markets around 50% of markets are below their 22 peak, and around a third of markets right now are following year over year for prices. Why aren't more people underwater? That's a reasonable question for people to have.
There's a few factors there. One is that when people buy a home, most people don't come in with no equity, right? They come in with their down payment, right? So people usually have a bit of an equity buffer. Now, you could have some USDA loans or VA loans or certain programs where it's 0%, but most people come in with around 11, 10% down payment.
And so there's a bit of an equity buffer, so when prices fall, you need a more sizable material correction to really put people underwater. The other thing is that the ultra low rates, these two 3% mortgage rates, the way that they're ized is that early on, people are paying more towards principal than people with higher rates, right?
So the pool of people that bought during the pandemic period and before the refinance down to those low rates. They're paying a lot towards equity. So that gives them even a bigger equity buffer. Interesting. And the third factor there is that some of these markets that have seen more of a material correction, like in Austin, Texas, they had a very small pool of people who bought at their peak.
So back in the housing bust error. Nationally, we hit the peak around 2005, and we sat there for a while, all of oh 6, 0 7, and then things started to materially drop, right? And so there was a lot of people who bought oh 5, 0 6, 0 7 at the very peak, right? Those vintages were very large and they were made even larger by some of these shadier mortgage products.
That helps some people get in, and that spurred even more transactions. At the very peak, you, if you take a market like Austin, Texas. Austin was up. 70% for home prices during the pandemic housing boom. And at the very end of the boom, they were still ripping for prices, and then they smacked into their peak in May, 2022, and then very quickly blew off 10%.
So the biggest group of Austin mortgages the vintages that are underwater is their 22 vintage, that very peak. So 18% of Austin's 22 vintage. Is underwater, but only around 2% of their 2021 vintage is underwater and only 10% of their 23 vintage is underwater. So it's just a very, it's a much smaller group.
And then if I could actually cut out the people who bought between March 22. June 22 in Austin. Those would really be the main people underwater in the Austin market at the moment. So that's another part of the reason. But if you did see home prices materially correct from here and more markets, you would have more people underwater.
But you need to see prices drop further than where we are right now. But at the moment, underwater is not really a national issue. You are starting to see, some pockets of southwest Florida get up to 5, 6, 7, 8% underwater, and I do expect that to rise from here, given that those markets are still in correction mode.
But you're still not talking about, GFC level numbers unless something really materially shifted. Interesting. And then, taking into consideration those that did lock in that really low very attractive financing, four 30 year terms. Even if per se, they are potentially underwater, they may not frankly care as they may just simply write it out.
I'm curious to know. How long and how lingering will the impact be of those that are just absolutely, hesitant to get out of these low rate mortgages when we're looking at 6.5% in today's market. Yeah, so the amount of turnover in the housing market right now is it mul is it's really low, multi-decade lows and the amount of existing home sales relative.
To population is at a 40 year low right now. So there is actually fewer existing home sales occurring today than there were at the bottom of the GFC bust when you relative to population. Wow. Some of that is because demand is constrained and active inventory is building, not everything coming on the market for sale is getting absorbed as quickly.
The other factor is that the amount of people actually listing their home for sale, those new listings. It's down, right? They're down versus pre pandemic levels. And some of that is because those people maybe are like. They're looking at their monthly payment. Let's say it's 1500, let's say it's 2,500, right?
And then they're seeing what it would be if they bought at today's prices and today's rates. They're like, wow, it'd be 4,500, it'd be 4,000, 30, 500, 5,000, right? And so that shock of that payment, and some of that shock of the payment might be because they're like, you know what? I can't trade in this lower payment for this much higher payment.
Some of it is also that they couldn't even afford it, and if people did the math around half of U US, over half of current homeowners in the United States, if they took their current price that their home is worth, and then they took the current market rate for mortgages. Over half of them could not afford to buy their current home at today's rates and prices.
And so there, some people are locked in because they don't wanna do it. Some people are locked in because they can't do it. And so what could start to loosen that a bit? I think it's a few things. Time is the biggest one, right? Because for some people as lifestyle things occur, lifestyle events, let's say.
So the way to think of it is a switching cost, right? And so switching costs, there's a hard financial dollar number to it. And if you google the word in terms switching costs, there's also a psychological side of it. And so let's say. For instance, there's a couple, right? And they have a two or three bedroom house and they have two kids, and then they go to three kids, or they go to four kids, right?
And the wife is starting to get unhappy with the husband, Hey, we gotta move. We need more space. And the kids are starting to be unhappy. They want more space. That starts to be a psychological cost that some families are like, you know what? Yeah, we'd lose this lower payment and we take on a higher one, but.
For our life. It's better to do that, right? That's one instance. It could slowly loosen some of that lock-in. The other factor is if their incomes begin to rise, right? And so that won't loosen the payment shock in terms of the dollar number, but what it will do is in terms of a share of their discretionary income, that payment shock would decrease if their household income, right?
The couple were to start earning more. Another factor is if mortgage rates were to come down a bit, right? So some people might not be willing to buy something else at a six and a half, 7% rate, but at a five and a half, 5% rate. Maybe they would, right? And so that could loosen it. And but I do think the biggest thing is just time.
Now there are other things that could do it as well. People lose their jobs and are forced sellers, right? Lifestyle things. The DS of housing, death, divorce, all of those things. And really the DS of housing. Death, divorce, DI disability, whatever you want to throw into the ds, right? That caused this natural level of turnover.
That's really what the housing market right now on the residential side is coasting along, right? So we were at 5.3 million existing home sales in 2019, 2018, 2017, adjusted for population size. That's about normal right now. We're at 4 million existing home sales. That 4 million is really just being pushed along.
By the DS of housing, the things that have to transact that missing, 1.3 million existing home sales. A lot of that is the people who would like to sell, like to buy something else, but they're just not doing it. That's that group that kind of has some of that affordability lock in that we're seeing in the market right now.
Yeah, absolutely. And along those same lines too, again, with rates being about 6.5% and maybe not a, modest fed cut when on rates, as maybe in the horizon we shall see. I'm curious to note, how are you piecing together all of these different factors? So we've got rate shifts, we've got wage growth.
We've got home price trends. So when you're looking at, say, your 2026 forecast in such a time of a lot of uncertainty and volatility, how are you putting together, a projection that you can feel fairly confident about? Yeah. So the longer that we've stayed in this affordability constrained environment, it's created a shift in the supply demand equilibrium.
And so the demand for housing has been very subdued since mortgage rate shot up in 2022. But that hasn't manifested necessarily into flatlined prices or even negative prices in some of these markets because the amount of active inventory was still low, right? But the longer we've stayed in here, that supply demand equilibrium.
It's shifting more and more towards buyers. And so we're seeing that continue to happen and I expect that to continue to materialize in things like the amount of unsold completed, new builds by builders, the amount of active inventory for sale, the months of supply. And so as that occurs and prices and more of these markets either flatline or actually fall a bit.
And if that occurs, and then incomes continue to rise, which we're seeing incomes continue to rise. As that continues, and if it were to continue, and I expect it for a bit of a period here, housing will begin to heal on the fundamentals, right? Some of the affordability will heal now for the actual home buyer out on the market, right?
That might not feel that great still, right? Because it's still a constrained affordability. But in terms of the health of the housing market and getting us to a place where we have more transactions, we're having a healthier environment for housing that will work us there and will begin to work through some of this abnormal appreciation and overheating that occurred during the pandemic housing boom and that, that's still been where this market has been.
It's just taken a really long time and it's been very gradual. It doesn't feel great for the participants out in the market, right? Like I don't think anybody is really happy with the housing market, right? Whether it's, the buyers, even if they're seeing some of the prices drop a little bit still, their monthly payments are like, wow, this is expensive, right?
The people in the market, right? The people who work in real estate, they're not happy, especially in a very. Low level of transactions. And the one group that has been enjoying this environment more on builders, they're now not as happy with the environment, right? Because as the supply demand equilibrium has shifted and we've gotten more slack in the market, these builders that went out and met the market in 2022 with all these mortgage rate buy downs.
They're not having as good luck now, right? They're having to do bigger incentives, bigger margin compression, right? Pulling back on margin to throw it in. Incentives and price cuts to continue to move product. And even as they've done it, the amount of completed unsold new build inventory is now at the highest level since 2009.
Now if you adjust it for the actual number of housing starts, right? 'cause the country is bigger now than oh nine. It's not quite up to oh nine levels if you adjust it, but it's still much higher than we've been in over 10 years. There's, we're at a decade high for the amount of completed unsold new construction.
So the new construction slack, is it essentially a 10 year plus high? Wow. Very interesting. And, states are loosening, some of their zoning regulations and Congress is debating some tax incentives for new construction. But the reality, is, as you said, developers are not happy right now.
They're facing elevated capital cost, tighter lending. There's gonna be pressure very likely on the labor market particularly in skilled trades. But I'm just curious to know if you had to pick, a lever that you could pull. It being either policy reform or cheaper credit. What do you think would do more to basically close this home shortage gap that we have?
Yeah you threw a lot at me. And and the first part is just the whole debate of a shortage, right? Is there, is there a shortage? How much of a shortage? These are very hotly debated issues within housing economics. So you take you, I've compiled a lot of these shortage researches that have been published.
I actually have more of them. Than anybody has ever collected in one place. I have 16 of them, right? And so I look through 'em all and I try to understand their methodologies. And so the highest, one of the highest ones is a EI housing center. And a EI housing center thinks that the housing market is short.
6 million homes, right? But they think that 60, 70% of the housing market is not in a shortage, and that all of that 60, 70% is essentially in California. Some of these mountain west markets, some of these East coast markets, right? Is where there's more of an issue. And so even the markets right now that have the least amount of inventory, some of these secondary third markets in the Midwest, Northeast, they're not necessarily the places that.
The group of researchers that thinks there's the biggest shortage, they're not the places that they think there is a shortage. And so that, that's a, a unique it's a unique way to look at it. And with the shortage then, if you look at it in terms of a a per capita basis, they're more homes on a per capita basis.
In a 30, 40 year period. Right now, there's more on a per capita basis than there have been in decades, right? And so the whole idea of a shortage, it's a, it's it's a complicated topic, and housing is, there's a cyclical. Element to housing, right? Because housing demand is more elastic than supply.
And so you can have these bigger run-ups and prices that create this affordability constrain. And is that driven up because there's not enough homes or is it because, housing demand is very elastic and the Federal Reserve has some of these levers that may be push up housing demand. More than it should have.
And so it's, it's very hotly debated in terms of, is there a housing shortage? How much is there a housing shortage? How can we address it? But in, in general, for the housing sector. I think that this whole discussion about housing shortage is not a negative. And even if there are things done to help the housing shortage, quote unquote housing shortage, it wouldn't necessarily be bad for the industry in terms of that's where the attention of policy policymakers go.
Because if policymakers go. In the direction of, let's say going after single family landlords or going after this group in housing or going after that group in housing, those things could create a net. Negative effect long term on housing home building. Whereas if the, if these different policy makers are trying to alleviate some of the, zoning issues or trying to lower some of the impact fees that builders pay, right?
Even if those things don't create a a sustained affordability improvement for housing, or if they don't create. A site, a material improvement in affordability or the amount of supply, they still are, friendly to the industry and friendly to development. And so I don't think there's a negative I.
Immediately and in trying to do these different things that could improve, quote unquote the housing shortage. But I also I'm not too naive in terms of thinking that, there's a magic wand that you could wave and it's gonna make housing all patter because housing is.
Is this very complex thing that is at the, it's the center of the American dream, right? It's a component of a need for people, which is shelter. It's also very tied to the monetary system, right? In terms of the fed's levers to stimulate the economy or to slow it down, they have a big impact on housing.
It's also very big in terms of its impact. On the economy, residential construction is 5% of the economy. And then if you start to look beyond that, right? 'cause there's a lot of other things that are tied to housing that aren't necessarily residential construction. You could make an argument that it's closer to 15% or let alone 20% of the economy.
But. So you asked a great question, and I don't really have a great answer. I, I have, I don't think anyone does. You're forgiven. But the complexity of it you did an excellent job of really highlighting that, especially posing the question of, is there really a shortage or not? I was thinking about the generational trends that also have to be factored into this equation.
Meaning that, I don't see Gen Z, motivated whatsoever to work, let alone own a home. And waiting for kind of the seasons of time to work through those types of factors as well before you eventually see a trickle into housing market data. I wanna jump in there real quick.
Yeah. So that's an interesting thing you brought up, which is. The typical first time home buyer in America is now 38 years old. When I was born, it was around 28 years old. And so the question is how did it get that high? And there are these narratives of, it's, affordability. And I think affordability has played a role, especially recently with the mortgage rate shock.
That has sent that number even higher. Just five years ago, the typical first time home buyer was 33. Now it's 38. I think a lot of that is due to the the Morgan trade shock that has temporarily pushed that even higher. But a lot of it is also lifestyle delays, right? So if you look at the numbers, the typical person 60, 70 years ago was getting married at 22.
Now they're getting married at 28, 29, right? People go to school longer, right? They have kids later in their life and when they have kids, they have fewer kids. And when they get, when they're ready to buy a house, I think it's just, later in time. So I think that affordability has played a role, and especially recently with this affordability, cons constraint that we've seen, but.
Some of it is just this secular shift that's occurred where people were delaying more things later in life. Including these milestones like buying a house. Yeah, absolutely. A fun little data point too that I think often gets very overlooked is also the price of rent, right? The cost of renting.
And, I, a lot of people will take, the argument that it's cheaper to rent than it is to currently buy a house, but that's really only true up until a certain point. And then at a certain point, depending on the rental rates, so for example, here in California. Rental rates are astronomical.
And while maybe it wasn't an ideal time for me to purchase a home, my husband and I ultimately decided, we wanna keep paying this guy's mortgage or we wanna pay ours. And it's essentially yazz it a little bit more expensive to have purchased rather than continue to rent. Yes. But the reality is that when rents get to a certain point, when they get so high, it no longer really makes any logical sense to continue to meet those demands.
And I think that is a very interesting data point that a lot of people miss as part of the, the different factors that motivate, transactions within the market. Yeah, I think the fact that people had to pay rent and it, you had to live somewhere. And so if you're not loving 'em with a relative, you're either renting or buying.
And I think the fact that, people aren't building the equity on renting has always been part of the driver of home ownership. It, but right now the math is strains in a lot of these markets and some of the people that would've bought, let's say five years ago, that type of person might not now because they're looking at what they would pay for rent, and then they're looking at what that monthly mortgage payment would be and they're like, you know what?
I can take the di, I can rent, take the difference best in the stock market and come out ahead. But, they might try that. And then some people start to learn that, you know what, it's nice having this forced savings mechanism of owning a home, right? Where you're forced to be paying towards it.
But th those are all decisions that people, think through themselves. Yeah. Very much lifestyle yet again. Interesting. All right. Lance, this has been really fun and very insightful. I really appreciate all the data points that you brought. Before we let you go, I'd like to ask you what we call the lightning round questions, which are just five questions that I ask all the guests on the show.
So are you ready? What? Didn't know this one was coming, but Yes, I'm ready. So when you are not, working on your publications and crunching data, what do you actually do for fun? Yeah, so I don't do a lot for fun lately 'cause I'm building a business resi club. All my energy's going into it. But I have three kids.
Spending time with my wife, three kids trying to do things that the kids think are fun. But realize right now I'm just in a moment in my life. 'cause I'm just started building this business 15, 16, 17 months ago. That I'm not doing too much for fun, but how housing is a lot of fun for me and the housing data.
Nice, nice. And just to put a plugin for your business we briefly touched on it, but do you wanna just share with our listeners and our viewers, what your business offers? Yeah. So I left Fortune Magazine back in October, 2023. An investor and I, Anthony Pompano, launched Resi Club.
And it's a housing market analytics research company. And so we cover what's going on for home building, what's going on for mortgage, what's going on in these residential housing markets all across the country for resale and new construction, metro level, county level, zip code level. Just trying to put the pieces together right and help explain it to people.
Our content is very chart friendly. It's a lot of maps, lots of charts, lots of visuals. People can go to resi club analytics.com, see our content put in their email, get signed up for our newsletter. And then our pro members they get an additional research every week three articles, access to our interactives and tools, and then can also listen on our webinars.
And then we have an event once a year that we do in New York City called Resi Day, where we bring together a lot of the leaders across the sector. Very cool. Very cool. Okay. And now back to our lightning round questions since we got to work that plug in there. What is something interesting about you that most people don't know?
Oh, wow. I don't think there is too much. I don't know what is interesting about myself, that's a, I think I'm just very driven by curiosity. I love to learn. I'm always trying to learn more, and right now I've just really focus that energy on housing and trying to better understand what's going on in the housing market.
Yeah. But if I had such a lame answer to that, no, that's all right. That's all right. Nerds rule in their own way too, right? So no problem at all. Alright. What about as far as a book or a podcast? Would you recommend people tune into or read if they're really interested in maybe understanding or learning more about the h the housing dynamics the economic factors that can sway it or something, overall just to help them be more successful in their investments?
Yeah, for housing, books and podcasts haven't been where the best material is in, in the sector. I think. What I would do is follow me on Twitter at News Lamb. You be there, you'll get much better insight than any of the podcast or books to understand the housing market. And it's not just my stuff, it's just the housing community On Twitter, you'll get some really good insights.
And then Lance, for for our listeners, if they want to get in touch with you, how can they find you? You mentioned Twitter earlier, but is there any other contact information you'd like to share? Yeah, so they could email me, lance@resiclubanalytics.com. I respond pretty quickly. You can find me on Twitter at News Lambert, and you can also find me on LinkedIn at LAN Lance Lambert.
All right, perfect. We'll be sure to include those details in the show notes. Thank you so much, Lance. This was very insightful. Yeah, thank you for having me. Appreciate it. For those of you that invested your time with us today, thank you. Please make sure to leave us some comments, let us know more that you'd like us to dig into, and if you haven't subscribed already, make sure you do in the meantime, be bold, be extraordinary, and keep moving forward.
Ready to Scale is brought to you by Blue Lake Capital, where we hunt down the best multifamily investment opportunities that we can find and invite investors to join in with us. We target class B value add multifamily properties across the Sunbelt. Our CEO Ellie Perlman, invest a substantial amount of capital into every deal.