It’s a question more investors are starting to ask - out loud, in emails, and on calls:
Can you recession-proof a multifamily portfolio that’s already operating? The short answer? Not entirely.
The real answer? You can get pretty close, if you focus on the right things.
At Blue Lake Capital, we’ve never believed in chasing perfection. Instead, we focus on resilience: building and managing a portfolio that can weather economic storms, even if it can’t avoid them entirely. And in today’s environment, where inflation is sticky, rates are high, and consumer confidence is wobbly, that mindset is more important than ever.
Here’s how we’re thinking about recession resistance right now, and what we’re doing to reinforce the stability of the assets we already own:
1. Lean Hard Into Cash Flow
In a high-rate, uncertain economy, appreciation takes a back seat. And that’s okay.
We underwrite for cash flow first, and once we own an asset, we double down on optimizing it.
That means aggressively managing expenses, monitoring collections, offering lease renewal incentives when it makes sense, and ensuring occupancy stays healthy, even if it means adjusting rents to match current demand. This is not the moment to squeeze every last dollar out of tenants; it’s the moment to preserve revenue and keep the property performing.
2. Asset Management Is Everything
This is where portfolios are made, or broken.
You can’t recession-proof anything if you’re managing it from a distance. We stay close to our assets, our property managers, and our on-site teams. We track KPIs obsessively, including occupancy, delinquency, turnover, rent growth, renewals, and even maintenance backlogs, because we don’t wait for problems to snowball before addressing them. As any experienced operator will tell you, that never goes well and is very difficult to reverse.
Hands-on, data-driven asset management is one of the most effective ways to protect an existing portfolio during uncertain times. And short of living onsite, we’re being heavily hands-on.
3. Strengthen Your Resident Base
In tougher economies, your residents feel it first. And if you’re not paying attention, your NOI will feel it next.
We’re being more intentional about communication, lease renewals, and community building. The better your resident experience, the more likely you are to retain tenants and avoid costly turnover. In a market where attracting new tenants may require concessions, keeping good residents in place is one of the best recession-resilience moves you can make.
4. Re-Evaluate Renovation Strategies
If a renovation isn’t going to produce a clear return, or if the cost basis has shifted too much, it’s okay to pause or pivot.
At Blue Lake, we’re revisiting every remaining CapEx plan to make sure it’s still aligned with current market demand and cost structure. If a unit turns but rents in that submarket are flatlining, we may hold off on the upgrade and keep it clean, functional, and priced to lease quickly. Again, this isn’t about doing less; it’s about doing what matters now.
5. Maintain Strong Reserves and Low Leverage Where Possible
Cash cushions don’t just make you feel better; they allow you to act better.
Whether it’s absorbing temporary cash flow dips, funding critical repairs, or navigating unexpected vacancies, reserves give you room to breathe. And breathing room is what separates properties that survive a downturn from those that spiral under pressure.
We also stay away from over-leveraging, especially on refis. In a high-rate environment, less debt equals more flexibility, and more flexibility equals more resilience.
Final Thought
No portfolio is completely recession-proof. But a well-managed one can absolutely be recession-ready. It’s not about chasing yield or locking into rigid plans. It’s about staying nimble, protecting cash flow, and doing the work consistently. It’s not glamorous, but it’s impactful, and that’s all that matters. At Blue Lake, we’re not crossing our fingers and hoping things turn around. We’re actively strengthening every asset in our portfolio, so that no matter what happens next in the broader economy, our foundation stays solid.
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About Ellie Perlman
Ellie Perlman is the founder and CEO of Blue Lake Capital, a woman owned multifamily real estate investment firm focused on partnering with family offices and accredited investors to build and preserve generational wealth. Since its founding in 2017, Blue Lake has successfully acquired and operated multifamily assets across high-growth U.S. markets, completing $1B+ in transactions.
At Blue Lake Capital, Ellie and her team work exclusively with family offices and accredited investors, offering carefully curated investment opportunities that emphasize long-term wealth creation, stability, and risk-adjusted returns. A defining aspect of Blue Lake’s investment strategy is its integration of advanced AI-driven analytics and data science into the entire lifecycle of acquisitions and asset management. By leveraging cutting-edge technology, the firm executes data-driven forecasting on market trends, asset performance, and tenant behavior, ensuring strategic decision-making and optimized returns.
In addition to leading Blue Lake Capital, Ellie is the original founder and host of "REady2Scale - Real Estate Investing" podcast, which provides insights into multifamily real estate, alternative investments, and finance.
Ellie began her career as a commercial real estate attorney, structuring and negotiating complex transactions for one of Israel’s leading development firms. She later transitioned into property management, overseeing over $100M in assets for Israel’s largest energy company.
Ellie holds a Master’s in Law from Bar-Ilan University in Israel and an MBA from MIT Sloan School of Management.
You can learn more about Blue Lake Capital and Ellie Perlman at www.bluelake-capital.com. *The content provided on this website, including all downloadable resources, is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Furthermore, this material does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.