And why now may be the inflection point for long-term investors…
If you’ve been watching the multifamily space closely, you know the Sun Belt has taken a hit in recent quarters. Rent growth slowed. New supply surged. Investors hesitated.
But here’s what’s not being talked about enough: much of that pain may already be priced in, and the next chapter is starting to take shape. New supply is peaking. Deliveries are expected to taper. And according to Yardi Matrix’s April 2025 report, several Sun Belt metros are poised to reemerge as leaders in rent growth by 2026.
Here are five markets forecasted to rebound, and why long-term passive investors should take notice.
Forecast Rent Growth (2025–2026): 4.2%
Completions as % of Stock: 7.3%
Job Growth: 2.4%
Orlando is absorbing one of the largest new delivery volumes in the country, yet demand remains healthy. With strong in-migration and a dynamic service and tourism economy, the market is positioned to see rents rise sharply once new supply is leased up, especially in late 2025 and into 2026.
Forecast Rent Growth (2025–2026): 3.8%
Completions as % of Stock: 6.3%
Job Growth: 2.5%
Nashville continues to benefit from diversified job growth, including healthcare, tech, and education, plus strong population inflows. Yardi forecasts rent growth acceleration as construction activity slows and the city's cultural and economic appeal keeps attracting talent.
Forecast Rent Growth (2025–2026): 3.6%
Completions as % of Stock: 5.3%
Job Growth: 2.2%
Charlotte has seen a wave of new product hit the market, but it’s been met with equally strong absorption. As the delivery pipeline shrinks heading into 2026, the city’s balance of affordability and employment growth positions it for above-average rent recovery.
Forecast Rent Growth (2025–2026): 3.5%
Completions as % of Stock: 7.9%
Job Growth: 2.3%
Phoenix was one of the first Sun Belt cities to overheat, and one of the first to correct. With deliveries expected to drop sharply after this year, stabilized assets could benefit from reduced competition and a return to stronger rent growth in mid-to-late 2026.
Forecast Rent Growth (2025–2026): 3.3%
In 2023 and 2024, the Sun Belt saw cap rates expand and NOI growth soften, creating challenges. But for those who take the long view, these next 12–18 months represent optimism for current investments, as well as a strategic buying window. With deliveries tapering and demand still strong, assets acquired today could benefit from improving fundamentals and NOI-driven appreciation beginning in 2026.
For passive investors, the lesson is simple: the Sun Belt hasn’t lost its growth story, it’s just in a new chapter. And the data suggests it could be a very exciting one.
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