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Is the Housing Market Really Recovering?
REady2Scale - Real Estate Investing
Is the Housing Market Really Healing or Just Delayed? What does today’s housing data tell us about tomorrow’s economy? On this episode of REady2Scale, Jeannette Friedrich sits down with Lance Lambert, CEO of Resi Club and former real estate editor at Fortune Magazine, to unpack the real story behind housing inventory levels, affordability pressures, and regional price corrections. From Sunbelt softness to generational shifts in homeownership, Lance offers a grounded, data-informed view of where we stand and where we may be headed.
Key Takeaways:
- Inventory is building, but not fully recovered: Active listings have passed one million for the first time since 2019, though total inventory is still below pre-pandemic norms. The increase is driven more by slower sales than a surge in new supply.
- Affordability remains a constraint: Home prices grew faster than incomes during the pandemic boom. With mortgage rates still elevated, many homeowners are hesitant or unable to move.
- Underwater mortgages are highly concentrated: While only about 1% of U.S. mortgages are underwater nationally, pockets in the Sunbelt, like Cape Coral and Austin, show higher risk. These cases are mostly limited to 2022 buyers.
- Regional bifurcation is widening: Sunbelt markets and parts of the West are softening, while many Midwest and Northeast markets are holding firmer due to tighter supply.
- The “locked-in” effect is real: Homeowners with low mortgage rates are staying put, reducing turnover. The current level of home sales per capita is at a 40-year low.
- Generational timing is shifting: The average age of first-time homebuyers is now 38, up from 33 just five years ago, driven by both affordability and lifestyle delays.
- Builders are feeling the pressure: New construction inventory is at a decade high, and developers are relying more on incentives and price cuts to move product.
- The housing shortage debate is nuanced: Estimates of how short the market is vary significantly. Some regions have a true supply gap, while others show little evidence of shortage when adjusted for population and household formation.
- What could shift the market: Income growth, rate adjustments, and time-driven lifestyle changes may gradually unlock inventory and restore balance.
This episode is a detailed, research-backed conversation for anyone seeking clarity on how structural shifts and economic forces are shaping the future of U.S. housing.
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Credits
Producer: Blue Lake Capital
Strategist: Syed Mahmood
Editor: Emma Walker
Opening music: Pomplamoose
*𝘉𝘭𝘶𝘦 𝘓𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘊𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘳 𝘢 𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺. 𝘗𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘊𝘗𝘈, 𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘦𝘺, 𝘢𝘯𝘥/𝘰𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘶𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘣𝘺 𝘺𝘰𝘶.
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