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Onshoring & Office Shakeups: How Tariffs are Impacting CRE

Onshoring & Office Shakeups: How Tariffs are Impacting CRE

REady2Scale - Real Estate Investing
2025-04-30• 38 min
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Is America really bringing manufacturing back? And what does that mean for real estate investors? In this episode of REady2Scale, Jeannette Friedrich is joined by Patrick Sentner, Executive Vice President at Colliers and longtime expert in office and industrial real estate. Together, they unpack how reshoring, power constraints, tenant behavior, and capital markets are transforming industrial and office site selection in 2025. From the behind-the-scenes dynamics of data centers to the rising cost of office buildouts, this conversation is full of actionable insights for passive investors, brokers, and developers navigating today’s complex commercial real estate landscape. Key Takeaways: - Onshoring is real, but power access now drives site selection. Tenants increasingly prioritize megawatt availability over geography due to AI and advanced manufacturing needs. - States are becoming selective with incentives. Locations offering jobs with strong wages are winning competitive bids, while others shy away from low-job-impact data centers. - Private equity is betting big on data center land. Investors are securing power-ready sites even before corporate tenants commit. - Office buildouts now cost double. Tenants are facing $75 to $80 per square foot for basic improvements, driving new lease structuring and rate negotiations. - Cap rates diverge by asset type. Class A office properties are seeing steep declines in value, some with cap rates as high as 15 percent, while industrial assets vary by location but are ticking up again. - Blend and extend lease strategies are surging. Tenants are renegotiating terms for lower rates or rent relief in exchange for longer lease commitments, often amid distressed debt situations. - Lenders are becoming de facto landlords. More tenants are navigating lease agreements directly with receivers and banks as buildings change hands. - Conversions to housing are rarely viable. Despite calls to convert vacant office space into housing, construction costs and layout limitations often make it financially unfeasible. - What passive investors should look for: Poorly capitalized buildings with strong physical infrastructure may offer distressed buying opportunities, especially if acquired directly from lenders at a steep discount. This episode offers a rare, inside look at where industrial and office markets are heading and how investors can navigate the road ahead. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and Guest Introduction 01:48 Current Trends in Industrial Site Selection 03:25 Power Requirements and State Incentives 10:20 Impact of Fed Rates on Office Leases 13:27 Challenges in Office Property Valuation 29:45 Lightning Round and Closing Remarks Are you REady2Scale Your Multifamily Investments? Learn more about growing your wealth, strengthening your portfolio, and scaling to the next level at www.bluelake-capital.com. Credits Producer: Blue Lake Capital Strategist: Syed Mahmood Editor: Emma Walker Opening music: Pomplamoose *𝘉𝘭𝘶𝘦 𝘓𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘊𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘳 𝘢 𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺. 𝘗𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘊𝘗𝘈, 𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘦𝘺, 𝘢𝘯𝘥/𝘰𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘶𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘣𝘺 𝘺𝘰𝘶.